Alabama’s 2012 Defense Preview
At long last, the 2012 college football season is almost here. It looks like Alabama will have another solid season, but anytime you lose as many quality players as we did, there are uncertainties as to how good we can really be. Those concerns are especially valid with this year’s defensive unit, because we lost 7 starters off of last year’s all-time great defense, and 4 of those were selected in the top 32 picks of last year’s draft. No matter how optimistic you want to be, we can’t be as good as we were last year. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t be good, and I believe we have the talent and coaching (don’t underestimate how important the coaching is) to be quite good. Let’s look at the individual units.
Defensive Line: The defensive line should be a strength this year, maybe even more so than last year. We lost nose tackle Josh Chapman to graduation and the NFL, but Jesse Williams is moving over into that slot, and he should be dominant. Damian Square returns at one of the DE spots, and Quinton Dial will man the other. Those three should be the best starting three we’ve had on the line in a long time. In fact, I don’t think we’ve had better since Curry, Copeland, and Gregory. Our immediate defensive line depth is pretty good, highlighted by Ed Stinson, who may actually start ahead of Dial, and we also have Jeoffrey Pagan, who will compete for a starting position as the year progresses. Brandon Ivory will probably be Williams’s primary backup, and unless he has improved dramatically, there would be a steep drop-off between those two. However, our younger talent is incredible, with future stars like LaMichael Fanning, D.J. Pettway, and Davlin Tomlinson waiting in the wings. Hopefully we’ll stay healthy through the year, and our starters can carry the primary load in dominating fashion, and our younger guys can gain some valuable experience. My prediction: Our DL will be outstanding, and will be the only unit on our defense that will be better than last year’s squad.
Linebacker: Our linebacker unit takes a big hit with the losses of Dont’a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and Jerrell Harris, all of whom are in the NFL now. That being said, our 2012 unit is not without talent, with returning co-starters Nico Johnson and Clint Mosley patrolling the middle WILL and MIKE positions, and Trey Depriest waiting in the wings after an impressive freshman season. Our JACK linebacker will be Adrian Hubbard, who I believe is an All-American in waiting (not this year, but before he’s done). His game is different from Upshaw in that he is more of a pure pass rusher than Upshaw, but we’ll probably lose something from a run defense perspective. As for the SAM, who knows? It will probably be Tana Patrick at first, but I have a feeling that as the year progresses, we’ll see more and more of our young guns, and make no mistake about it, we have incredible talent waiting in the wings at linebacker. Ryan Anderson, Dillon Lee, and Reggie Ragland are all tailor-made for Saban’s defense, and Xzavier Dickson, who I purposely saved for last, quite possibly has the most talent of any linebacker on the team. He’s more of a JACK, but Saban will probably try to find a way to work him and Hubbard into the lineup at the same time. My prediction: Our linebackers won’t be as good as last year’s unit, but they will still be a strength. I’m not worried at all about our linebackers.
Secondary: Our secondary takes the biggest hit. Losing Dre Kirkpatrick, Dequan Menzie, and Mark Barron really hurts, and I’m afraid we’ll feel that hurt this season. At cornerback, we’re returning part-time starter Dee Milliner, and the other CB will probably be Deion Belue. Expect to see John Fulton come in for certain situations, and I think he has the potential to be a star this year. True freshman Geno Smith might see some playing time also. Robert Lester returns at safety and should be a leader for both the secondary and the defense as a whole. We have a lot of options for the other safety position, including the hyper-talented duo of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Landon Collins. Those guys will play a lot this year, and it’s possible they’ll both work their way into the field; they’re too talented to keep off for too long. However, we need to find room for Vinnie Sunseri too, who as a true freshman got lots of quality playing time, including making some big plays in last year’s BCS Championship Game. So we have a lot of talent in the secondary, maybe more than we’ve ever had, but the experience that we’re losing is almost impossible to replace, especially in Saban’s complicated schemes. My prediction: Though this secondary has tons of potential, it is just too inexperienced to be the strength that it was last year. We’ll see some blown coverages, and some big plays against us that we aren’t used to seeing. By the end of the year, it should be a solid group, and next year, it could be another great unit.
So that’s my breakdown of our individual units. Overall, I think we’ll have a very good defense, probably top 15 nationally, and we’ll be playing like a Top 5 unit at the end of the year if we stay healthy. Of course, it’s possible that the DL will be even more dominant than I predicted, and it’s possible that our linebackers with such a strong middle will be every bit as good as last year’s unit, and it’s possible that our incredibly talented young DBs will play up to their potential sooner rather than later. If those things happen, our defense might be scary again, but though I’ll be hoping that happens, in reality, I expect us to have a fairly significant drop from what we saw last year.
That’s it for now. I’ll preview the offense in the next couple of days. As always, feel free to contact me with any questions or comments. Until then, Roll Tide!
Kenny