1/2 Championship Preview
A couple of weeks have passed since Bama’s rousing 32-13 win over Florida in the SEC Championship Game, and our national championship showdown with the undefeated Texas Longhorns is only a few days away. I wanted to take a few minutes to talk about this upcoming match, and how Bama can complete this miraculous season with the biggest prize college football has to offer.
Bama faces a lot of obstacles in this matchup, but in my opinion, the greatest obstacle stems from the victory over Florida. Here’s the thing; excluding us (possibly including us) Florida is the best team in the nation from top to bottom. Their lineup is filled with top NFL talent on offense, defense, and special teams. Their QB is quite possibly the greatest player in the history of college football, and they were riding the nation’s longest winning streak when they ran into us. It’s natural to feel that if we can beat a team like that, then anybody else should be easy. In addition, Texas had so much trouble with Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game that it’s logical to assume that we should run roughshod over them. The fans seem to feel that way, and if the players think that way, we’ll get humiliated on Thursday night.
Texas is a great team. Understand what I’m saying. I’m not saying they’re a good team; I’m saying they’re a great team. Florida is awesome; Texas is right there with them. Tebow is the greatest QB I’ve ever seen, but on a good day, Texas QB Colt McCoy is better. They have similar styles, but McCoy is incredibly accurate (over 70% completions this year), plus he’s a very fast runner. In their rivalry game against Texas A&M, he threw for over 300 yards and ran for over 150 yards! And to make matters worse, they have the nation’s top WR in Jordan Shipley. Shipley is deceptively quick; he catches everything thrown anywhere in his vicinity, and he’s so brutally strong that he absolutely destroys press man coverage (the kind of coverage we specialize in). You may ask, “If these guys are so good, then why couldn’t they move the ball against Nebraska?” It’s a fair question, but there are two things to consider. First, did you see what Nebraska’s defense did against Arizona in their bowl game? And second, even playing as poorly as they did, it’s not like Nebraska shut them out. They scored several times, and they did manage to move the ball into field goal range when the game was on the line at the end.
But that’s just their offense. Take a look at their defense. There are a lot of great defenses this year, but of all of them, guess who ranks at the top in rush defense (probably the most important stat when matching up against our offense). The answer is Texas (otherwise, it would have been a pretty pointless buildup!). That’s right; even if we manage to slow down the ultra-high powered Colt McCoy led offense, we still have to move the ball against the toughest defense we’ve faced all year. Remember, Florida was missing their top defensive lineman when they played us; Texas will be at full strength. And if you were impressed with how Nebraska slowed down the Texas offense, did you notice what Texas’s defense did to Nebraska’s offense?
So if they’re that good, how do we beat them? Unfortunately, I don’t really have a magic bullet to answer that. We have to do all of the obvious stuff; score TDs in the red zone, catch all the balls that we can possibly catch, make all field goals, etc. As for specifics, the main key to me will be the play of our offensive line. McElroy has been playing well, and if he has time to throw, then I think he’ll make good decisions and deliver accurate, timely passes. If we can do that, then maybe we can loosen up their defensive front to allow our running backs some room for them to do their thing. How important do I think the play of our offensive line will be? Let’s just say if they get manhandled like they did against Auburn just two games ago, we’ll not only lose, but it will be a blowout. And that’s what worries me; Texas’s defensive front is much, much, much, much, much better than Auburn’s, and you saw what they did to us.
The other main key in my opinion will be third down efficiency on both sides of the ball. When they are facing a third and long (5 yards or more), we simply have to get them off the field. McCoy is too dangerous to let him stay on the field when we have a chance to send him to the sideline. Similarly, we have to convert all of our third and short (2 yards or less) opportunities. This one ties back into the play of the offensive line, and if we can extend our drives in these situations, not only do we increase our chance of scoring, but also we keep McCoy and company off the field. Yeah, I know that saying third down efficiency is important is about as insightful as saying that the team with the most points at the end of the game will win, but my point is that we have a very narrow margin for error in this game, and giving McCoy extra chances when we should have stopped him will almost certainly lead to disaster.
Want more? Here are a few more musts for us to have a chance to win. We must contain McCoy; don’t let him scramble for first downs. We must avoid big play TDs (long passes, kickoff returns, etc.). We must have good ball security. Fumbles and interceptions can kill us in this game. Finally, our stars must shine. We have the best 1-2 running back combo in the nation. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, you have to come up big in this one. Julio Jones, you’ve been quiet all year. Explode on Thursday night! Javier Arenas, you’re the best return man in the nation, and you’ve worked yourself into a first string All-American at cornerback. We’re going to need one of your patented big returns, and their has never been a better time to show off your DB skills than against the nations top WR. Rolando McClain, you’re the best linebacker we’ve ever had, and we’ve never had a better leader on defense than you. Get us into the right defenses, and keep McCoy in check!
I’m not going to make a prediction. I just hope that the Bama players fully realize and appreciate the opportunity they’ve created for themselves, and I hope they take full advantage of this opportunity. It’s in your hands now guys; bring it home!
Enjoy the game everybody. I'll post a recap afterwards win or lose, so be sure to check back then. Until then, as always, feel free to send me any questions or comments.
Roll Tide!
Kenny
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